According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Biden’s approval rating may have bottom, but it faces limited upside. Speculation about Biden stepping down has been rife since the special counsel report…
Democrats remain favored for reelection in 2024, which implies gridlock and policy status quo in 2025. That is not negative for stocks in the near term. However, economic, political, and geopolitical risks will escalate from here,…
The Chinese economy continues to face deflationary pressures, reducing the odds that any intervention-driven rebound in equities will be sustained. In addition, our Geopolitical strategists have argued that US-China relations…
Since the pursuit of a nuclear deterrent makes it inevitable that the US and Israel will oppose Iran in the coming years, Iran must seize the initiative today. It cannot afford to assume that the Democratic Party will stay in…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service there is more downside than upside for stocks and yields. Every year the team chooses their top five low-probability, high-impact events that could roil markets.…
Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly…
China will increase economic and military pressure on Taiwan but there is no basis for immediate full-scale war. That is the takeaway from the Taiwanese election on January 13, which returned the nominally pro-independence…
Taiwan’s election will lead to serious Chinese military and economic pressure but not full-scale war. War is a long-term concern. Investors should short TWD-USD.
In this brief Insight we examine the expanding Middle East conflict and update the situation in the Taiwan Strait on the eve of elections. The Houthis are a distraction and China is not likely to invade Taiwan in the near term, but…