Economic Growth
Households’ healthy balance sheets do not square with the rise in credit cards and auto loans delinquencies. The tailwinds that have supported higher-income cohorts’ spending have faded, presaging broad-based deterioration in credit performance.
European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?
The March flash estimate for European Consumer Confidence missed estimates, and fell to -14.5 from -13.6 in February. This negative reading is the first European sentiment number missing expectations since January. The sentiment shift between the US and…
The market reaction to this afternoon’s Fed meeting looks overdone. Investors could be in for a hawkish surprise when it becomes apparent that the Fed won’t ease policy into higher tariff-driven inflation prints.
The March ZEW index for Germany and the eurozone beat estimates, with the expectations component rising to 51.6 from 26.0 in February. The current situation assessment only marginally improved yet remains deeply negative at -87.6. The March data shows…
US February housing data was relatively strong, with housing starts rising 11.2% m/m after falling 9.8% in January. While they fell less than expected, building permits still declined at a faster pace than in January. The March NAHB Housing Market Index also…
February Canadian headline inflation was stronger than expected, rising to 2.6% y/y from 1.9% in January. The Bank of Canada’s core measures were also slightly hotter than expected, both rising to 2.9% from 2.7% a month prior, near the top of the BoC’s…
February US retail sales were mixed, with the headline number missing expectations at only 0.2% m/m. January’s reading was revised down to -1.2%. Core measures (excluding gas & autos) were roughly in line with estimates, but the control group saw a 1.0%…
Outside of the real estate sector, Chinese activity was decent in January and February. Both industrial production and retail sales were slightly stronger than expected. The jobless rate ticked up to 5.4% while property investment was down -9.8%…