Equities
The headline Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for April delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, increasing from 3.2 to a twelve-month high of 15.5 and beating expectations it would soften to 2.0. Measures of demand improved with new orders and…
The equity risk premium – calculated as the 12-month forward earnings yield minus the 10-year real rate – continues to drop both for US and global stocks, standing at 2.7% and 3.7% respectively. The compression of the equity risk premium has been the result…
Nvidia has amassed staggering sales from AI. Last year its data center revenues exploded, going from just over $4 billion in 2023 Q1, to over $18 billion in 2023 Q4. That said, its competitors have not done as well. In the same time frame that Nvidia added…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service provides its take on US Q1-24 earnings expectations. Room for surprise? Positive earnings surprises have been a fixture of nearly every earnings season since the darkest days of the pandemic. This quarter will…
The US Energy sector has shifted from a capex and growth obsessed industry to one that is more focused on shareholder returns. ESG as well as the collapse in oil prices during the 2010s were the main culprits. Divesture due to ESG mandates on portfolios…
In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.
Unlike most advanced economies that are flirting with recession due to weak demand, the ‘inverted’ US economy is motoring along due to strong supply, from a combination of surging labour participation and surging immigration. We go through the implications for stocks, bonds, interest rates, and the dollar. Plus: IXJ, PEP, and MCD are good tactical outperformance candidates.
UK stocks posted one of the largest positive abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. The MSCI UK index has gained 2% relative to Eurozone stocks since late February. However, the relative performance of UK equities…
One of the most important factors for the success of tech stocks over the 2010s was monopoly power. Companies like Google, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft managed to develop entrenched moats in their own niches. This monopoly power enabled them to maintain…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service while Telecoms are not attractive on a strategic investment horizon, as a low-beta defensive sector they offer excellent downside protection for a portfolio. The Telecom industry is incredibly…