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Euro Area

Cooling June Inflation Doesn’t Guarantee A July ECB Cut
Eurozone headline inflation slowed from 2.6% y/y to 2.5% in June. Germany, its largest economy, saw price pressures ease from 2.4% to 2.2%, below expectations of 2.3% (or from 2.8% to 2.5% on an EU-Harmonized basis). However, Euro Area core inflation…
Daily Insights
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Remember, Remember, the Fifth of November

In our Volume I – The Alpha Report – we posit that the French bond market reaction is a mere amuse bouche for what is coming to the US. All year, we have warned investors that US politics could induce a bond market riot. This moment is nigh. Act accordingly!

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
The World's Growth Engine Is Sputtering
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, absent China’s exponential credit growth, China’s trend growth rate will fall to 4 percent and the world’s trend growth rate will fall to sub-3 percent. This will impede structural rallies in the Chinese stock…
Daily Insights
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Third Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Here Comes The Pain

The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today. We conservatively expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 during the coming recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
The ECB Will Be More Dovish Than The BoE
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the BoE will start cutting rates in September, but the pace of subsequent rate cuts will be modest until a recession engulfs Western economies in early 2025. The UK’s monetary policy remains…
Daily Insights
German IFO Surprises To Downside
According to the results of the latest German IFO survey, overall sentiment deteriorated slightly in June. The IFO Business Climate index declined from 89.3 in May to 88.6 in June, disappointing expectations of a modest amelioration to 89.6.  The IFO…
Daily Insights
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The BoE Is Turning Cautiously Dovish

Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Growth Unlikely To Overshoot ECB Forecast
The ECB delivered its first rate cut in June, moderating the degree of restriction rather than pivoting outright to easy monetary policy settings. Indeed, the rate cut was accompanied by an upward revision of inflation and growth forecasts. Since then,…
Daily Insights
French Elections Provide Tactical Opportunity For Eurozone Stocks
Eurozone equities sold off 7% from their June 6 highs, according to MSCI indices. The surprise French legislative elections and renewed fears of populism and European Union exits are spooking investors. Yet, our European Investment strategists argued that…
Daily Insights
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Too Late To Sell France?

European assets are selling off as investors panic about the upcoming French election. Is this panic justified, and if so, for how long?

European Investment Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso

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