Europe
We recently pointed to the UK Budget announcement as a pivotal event for UK assets. Following an initially positive reception, the market has turned and priced in further fiscal premia in UK assets, with both gilts and the pound selling off. While the…
Flash Q3 GDP estimates for the Euro Area beat expectations, accelerating to 0.4% quarterly growth from 0.2% last quarter. The momentum was spread across major countries, except for Italy. Meanwhile, the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index for…
Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?
The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in. More optimism is warranted as…
Eurozone money and credit data beat expectations, with M3 accelerating to 3.2% year-over-year in September from 2.9% a month prior. Household and corporate lending both drove the improvement. This development echoes the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey,…
Global economic surprises have improved. Currently positive and improving in the US, they are rising from a low level in the Eurozone and China. Two explanations could explain this momentum. First, the recent easing in financial conditions may have boosted…
Developed markets Flash PMIs estimates for October were mixed, with resilient US numbers and weakness elsewhere. The eurozone composite met expectations but remains below the 50-level expansion threshold. Germany outperformed expectations as foreshadowed…
Flash estimates for European consumer confidence met expectations at -12.5 in October, rising from -12.9 in September. Despite this positive development, Euro Area sentiment remains poor. Consumer confidence remains below its long-term average and near the…
Despite elevated mortgage rates, UK home prices remain resilient. Average new seller asking prices were roughly flat in October, even as evidence of selling pressures are emerging. According to Rightmove, total home prices were up 0.3% in October and…