Europe
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in. More optimism is warranted as…
Eurozone money and credit data beat expectations, with M3 accelerating to 3.2% year-over-year in September from 2.9% a month prior. Household and corporate lending both drove the improvement. This development echoes the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey,…
Global economic surprises have improved. Currently positive and improving in the US, they are rising from a low level in the Eurozone and China. Two explanations could explain this momentum. First, the recent easing in financial conditions may have boosted…
Developed markets Flash PMIs estimates for October were mixed, with resilient US numbers and weakness elsewhere. The eurozone composite met expectations but remains below the 50-level expansion threshold. Germany outperformed expectations as foreshadowed…
Flash estimates for European consumer confidence met expectations at -12.5 in October, rising from -12.9 in September. Despite this positive development, Euro Area sentiment remains poor. Consumer confidence remains below its long-term average and near the…
Despite elevated mortgage rates, UK home prices remain resilient. Average new seller asking prices were roughly flat in October, even as evidence of selling pressures are emerging. According to Rightmove, total home prices were up 0.3% in October and…
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. While the ECB is avoiding explicitly committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the disinflationary…
Japanese core machinery orders decreased by 1.9% in August and dropped 3.4% year-over-year, missing expectations for modest growth. This decline reversed July’s improvement, when machinery orders grew at an 8.7% annual pace. Japanese core machinery orders…