Preliminary estimates suggests that the Swedish economy unexpectedly contracted in Q2. The seasonally adjusted GDP Indicator declined by 0.8% q/q, following a 0.7% Q1 rise in actual GDP growth. Flash estimates lack details and…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a foreign shock is likely to tip the Eurozone economy into a recession because important vulnerabilities have emerged domestically. Policy is restrictive…
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?
We assign high odds that the US will tip into a recession by year-end or early 2025. Given it has been the largest driver of global demand in this cycle, a US recession will morph into a global downturn. The procyclical…
UK’s CPI growth stands right on the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. However, services inflation remains sticky, growing at a constant 5.7% y/y in June. Moreover, the deceleration in wage growth remains insufficient…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the impact on global trade from another round of tariffs under a potential Trump administration is an emerging risk to Europe. The underperformance of…
As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?
We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength…
Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the threat to European equities stems from growth, not French politics. After the dissolution of the French parliament on June 9th, investors sold…