Financial Markets
The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.
Our European strategists looked at the European defense sector after the massive rally following Germany’s fiscal turnaround. The rally in European defense stocks, up over 100% since their March 2023 recommendation, is overextended. While the long-term…
The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.50%, but maintained a hawkish bias, making it the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures. More rate increases are likely this year as…
Recent years were marked by US equities rebounding from each drawdown to re-test all-time highs. The best absolute-return strategy has been to “buy the dip” and close your eyes. Is it still the case? The short answer is no, as the US economy and markets…
Despite our Global Investment strategists’ bearish stance, their latest report reviews scenarios that could be bullish for equities. Our colleagues remain bearish on equities, expecting a US recession this year. However, several upside scenarios could…
Gold is testing the $3,000/oz level. The yellow metal had a great run, outperforming every DM currency for the past few months. Despite rising real yields since the beginning of the year, gold prices are up nearly 15%.The relationship between real yields and…
Despite our bearish predisposition towards stocks, we are open-minded to anything that could challenge our thesis. As such, in this report, we review five upside scenarios for equities.
A reoccurring theme in client discussions has been how cheap US small-cap equities could siphon allocation away from their richly-valued large-cap peers. But valuations are no one’s friend in a drawdown. While the S&P 500 is in correction territory at 10%…
After affirming he does not look at the stock market, President Trump said he cannot exclude the possibility of a recession as he rushes to implement his agenda before the 2026 midterms. Could a President willingly start a recession? A President’s…
After entering 2025 with depressed growth expectations, measures of European sentiment have seemingly bottomed, and European assets rallied. However, given the changing geopolitical order and Europe’s forceful response thus far, are we at a structural turning…