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Financial Markets

Copper Remains Vulnerable
Speculators have supported copper prices as demand growth slowed below the pace of supply growth. Our Commodity and Energy Strategy colleagues believe this does not bode well for the metal. The copper market faces a situation where demand growth will be…
Daily Insights
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EM Credit Markets: Nirvana Or A Mirage?

EM credit markets have recently defied the selloffs in EM equities, currencies, local currency bonds, and commodity prices. Such a decoupling is unusual. Resilient US growth and Fed easing are not sufficient to justify very low EM credit spreads.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Ziyuan Huang, Arthur Budaghyan
US GDP: Still Strong
Advanced Q3 GDP for the US met expectations, showing 2.8% quarterly annualized growth and a small deceleration from 3.0% in Q2. Importantly, growth remains above trend. The report was strong across the board except for housing. It also highlights that US…
Daily Insights
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Germany: Sick But Not Dead

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Keeping An Eye On The Oil-Rates Correlation
For the past two weeks, oil has sold off amid a global spike in yields. Oil prices and Treasury yields tend to be positively correlated, as oil prices are a fast-moving component of inflation, driving the inflation expectations component of bond yields. …
Daily Insights
China Stimulus: Not Enough To Boost Animal Spirits
While moving in the right direction, China’s latest stimulus measures are falling short of the mark to reflate the economy. The latest rumors extend this trend. News agencies reported discussions of a CNY 10 trillion bond issuance over three years. Six…
Daily Insights
Germany: Sick But Not Dead
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in. More optimism is warranted as…
Daily Insights
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US Consumers Are Not All The Same

Middle-aged households have lagged youngish and older households since the pandemic and the 40-to-54 cohort is worse off than it was at the end of 2019. The fragmenting of the seemingly monolithic US consumer widens the path to a recession and we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
A Hot October For Tokyo CPI
The “core core” (ex. fresh food & energy) segment of the Tokyo CPI basket beat expectations in October, printing at 1.8% year-over-year and accelerating from 1.6% in September after troughing at 1.5% in July. The Tokyo CPI is a timely indicator of…
Daily Insights
Will Improved Credit Growth Save Europe From Recession?
Eurozone money and credit data beat expectations, with M3 accelerating to 3.2% year-over-year in September from 2.9% a month prior. Household and corporate lending both drove the improvement. This development echoes the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey,…
Daily Insights

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