Financial Markets
US housing market data have been mixed. In June, the FHFA House Price index unexpectedly declined 0.1% m/m and the NAHB housing market index unexpectedly eased to 39 from a 41 reading. In July, starts and permits both disappointed, contracting 6.8% and 4.0%…
Last week, economists polled by Bloomberg revised their consensus 2024 US GDP forecasts upwards, from 2.3% to 2.5%. Government spending and private investment were both revised 0.3 ppts higher to 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively, while consumption growth forecasts…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, oil markets are caught in a tug-of-war that has kept oil prices in a trading range since H2 2023. Bearish demand concerns are enforcing an upper limit on the price of crude while bullish…
Chinese industrial profits rose by 4.1% y/y (3.6% YTD y/y) in July, from 3.6% (3.5%) in June. Upstream mining industries’ profits contracted 9.5% from January to July 2024, whereas downstream manufacturing sectors’ profits rose 5.0%. The NBS reported that…
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure surprised to the upside in August, rising from 100.3 to 103.3, above expectations of 100.7. Consumers’ assessment of present economic conditions climbed 0.8 points to 134.4, while their expectations about the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will come to fruition. This Nordic country…
Preliminary estimates suggest that US durable goods orders growth rebounded sharply from a 6.9% m/m contraction to 9.9% growth in July, upending expectations of a more muted 5.0% monthly increase. However, a 34.8% m/m rise in transportation equipment orders…
European regulatory carbon credits (EUAs) are becoming increasingly investable as an asset class. In a Special Report published last September, our Global Investment strategists agreed to the strategic bull case for EUAs, but highlighted a bearish view on…
Sentiment among German companies declined in August from 87.0 to 86.6. Current conditions shed 0.6 points to 86.5 while the expectations component ticked 0.2 points lower. It nevertheless exceeded consensus expectations for a larger decline. Deteriorating…
Market Breadth Remains Poor Despite Equal-weighted S&P 500’s Record High
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