The Chilean economy is entering a recession. After two years of tightening fiscal and monetary policies, real economic growth is beginning to contract and inflation is tumbling. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect the…
China’s money and credit update for May continues a string of disappointing Chinese data releases. The CNY 1.56 trillion increase in total social financing fell below expectations of a CNY 1.90 trillion rise. Similarly, the…
In response to the first-ever federal indictment of a former President, investors should focus on the state of the economy and not on Trump’s legal trouble. They should also use the current market rally to stock up on protection, as…
In our May In Review Insight, we highlighted that last month, industrial metals generated the largest abnormal losses among the major global financial assets we track. This continues a downtrend that started at the beginning of…
Chinese producer prices sent a disappointing signal about the domestic economy on Friday. The pace of decline in producer prices accelerated from -3.6% in April to -4.6% in May – worse than expectations of a -4.3% drop. The…
Our colleagues in BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy (CES) service expect the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to announce a new round of policy stimulus to re-boot the economy, in an effort to escape a prolonged liquidity…
Global financial markets relapsed in May. After a relatively strong start to Q2, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month. A shift in investor expectations for the path of the Fed…
The CCP is poised to roll out a re-boot of China’s economy that will focus on its comparative advantage in the processing of base metals – particularly copper – and the export of metals-intensive products like EVs. The re-boot will…
Chinese economic data releases continue to disappoint. Wednesday’s NBS PMI release showed the composite PMI dropped from 54.4 to 52.9 in May – the lowest since January. Importantly, the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly…
The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to…