Transit through the Suez Canal has hit a new low. The 7-day moving average of daily ship transit calls is currently at 30, less than half of what it was at the end of 2023. The decline in volume has been even more severe, with…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy and Geopolitical Strategy services, there are several avenues for tensions between Israel and Iran to escalate. Investors need to hedge against a 30% risk of a…
The implication is that Israel chose not to escalate the risk of direct war with Iran. Hence we remain in our base-case “Minor War, Minor Oil Shock” scenario.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the US-Russia conflict will re-escalate pre-election. Russia has taken 18% of Ukraine’s territory but has not yet clinched its victory. The western powers…
Our quant models suggest Democrats are still slightly favored for the White House. Our Senate model favors Republican control, though Montana and Ohio are the weak links that could deliver Democrats a de facto Senate majority in the…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and…
Financial markets appear unphased by the increase in Mideast tensions that occurred with Iran’s retaliatory attack on Israel over the weekend. Most notably, crude oil prices declined on Monday, suggesting that investors are…
Stay overweight US equities versus world, long US energy sector versus Middle East stocks, and long Canada and Mexico versus global-ex-US stocks.
Oil prices surged over the past two days on the back of heightened geopolitical risks to supply following increased tensions in the Middle East. Both Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi…