In this brief Insight we examine the expanding Middle East conflict and update the situation in the Taiwan Strait on the eve of elections. The Houthis are a distraction and China is not likely to invade Taiwan in the near term, but…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, hypo-globalization is the best way to understand the global trade environment. But de-globalization is more likely than re-globalization. A period of “…
The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, attacks on commercial tankers transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by Iran’s proxies in Yemen, the Houthis, are an inflation risk. Just under 9%…
The Republican Party’s odds of winning the 2024 election will benefit, if anything, from state courts’ attempts to exclude President Trump from primary or general election ballots. Higher odds of a change of ruling party will…
Oil prices will rise tactically due to supply risks. Recent developments indicate escalation of the conflict with Iran in the Middle East and confirm our expectation of energy supply disruptions and oil price spikes in the short run…
Global instability will continue in 2024 – whatever happens afterward. Slowing economies will exacerbate already high geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty stemming from the US election and foreign challenges to US leadership.…
Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.