No clear risk-on/risk-off pattern emerged from July’s market performance data. On the one hand, consistent with a risk-off environment, US bonds ranked highest in the monthly return distribution, while pro-cyclical…
Following the recent escalation in the Middle East conflict, BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service upgrades its subjective odds of a major oil supply shock to 37%. Volatility should spike again as investors…
The war in the Middle East is expanding, upgrading our subjective odds of a major oil supply shock to 37% and underscoring our 60% odds of Republican victory in November. Volatility should spike again as investors contemplate the…
Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the stock market outperformance in 2024 thus far is an unusual pattern in election years. The historical data imply that the market will suffer a spill if investors…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of the greatest cyclical risks to investors. A key question for investors is whether tariffs are…
This report provides our framework for interpreting the messages from last week’s Third Plenum, and the potential implications for the economy and investors.
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the impact on global trade from another round of tariffs under a potential Trump administration is an emerging risk to Europe. The underperformance of…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the biggest problem for Democrats is the economy. First, voters around the world have repeatedly voted against ruling parties since the 2022 inflation surge, in…