The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability.…
The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Indian Prime Minister Modi is on track to be reelected for his third term, with the latest polls in April averaging 385 seats for the National Democratic Alliance,…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Mexico’s presidential election on June 2 is likely to produce policy continuity, but a big win for the ruling party would be market-negative, at least…
Transit through the Suez Canal has hit a new low. The 7-day moving average of daily ship transit calls is currently at 30, less than half of what it was at the end of 2023. The decline in volume has been even more severe, with…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, US politics this decade will follow three strategic themes for the decade: (1) generational change, (2) peak polarization, (3) limited big government.…
The Federal Reserve has a target inflation of 2%. But what level of inflation does the American public actually prefer? A recent NBER paper titled “Inflation Preferences” by Afrouzi, Dietrich, Myrseth, Priftis, and…
Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.