Seasonal weather and price variability in the first quarter will dissipate, which will reduce the agita caused by the recent inflation scare. This will increase the Fed’s comfort level in initiating a rate-cutting cycle in June with…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, European political risk is turning up again. Increased European political risk is not because of the European parliamentary elections, which will see right-wing…
While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Biden’s approval rating may have bottom, but it faces limited upside. Speculation about Biden stepping down has been rife since the special counsel report…
Democrats remain favored for reelection in 2024, which implies gridlock and policy status quo in 2025. That is not negative for stocks in the near term. However, economic, political, and geopolitical risks will escalate from here,…
Energy security is a focus of many governments, especially since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One producer that is benefitting from diversification away from Russian oil and gas is Norway. This is buffeting the trade…
The Chinese economy continues to face deflationary pressures, reducing the odds that any intervention-driven rebound in equities will be sustained. In addition, our Geopolitical strategists have argued that US-China relations…
Since the pursuit of a nuclear deterrent makes it inevitable that the US and Israel will oppose Iran in the coming years, Iran must seize the initiative today. It cannot afford to assume that the Democratic Party will stay in…