Investors should reduce risk, increase allocation to safe havens, and brace for oil price volatility and supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East over the next zero-to-12 months.
The US House of Representatives finally got a Speaker, but according to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, his voting record indicates that he will be a populist hardliner, which increases the chance that there…
Stronger US growth elicits a response from the House Republicans. But a government shutdown is not devastating to the economy. What is more devastating would be a crisis in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Stay long US defense,…
The price of gold has rallied by 9.2% since October 5, reaching a 5-month high by Wednesday's close. Notably, this latest rally comes despite real bond yields having been trending higher for the past two weeks. Given that…
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer service proposes two strategies to help investors navigate the conflict in the Middle East. The first strategy uses the “Macro Sensitivities” filter on…
Geopolitical risk is returning to the market after a hiatus for most of 2023. Global investors are now realizing what our geopolitical strategists have argued all year: that the rise in geopolitical risk is a secular trend…
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service studied the SIFIs’ earnings calls for insights into borrower performance, lender willingness, liquidity and the actions and intentions of households and businesses.…
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy colleagues (CES) left their 2024 Brent crude oil price forecast unchanged at $118/bbl. This is not because nothing’s changed in the market. Rather, higher levels of…
Despite higher uncertainty, our Brent price forecasts remain unchanged at just over $101/bbl for 4Q23 and $118/bbl for next year. We remain long equity exposure to oil and gas producers via the XOP ETF, and commodity exposure via the…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Trump is lined up to win the Republican presidential nomination by March 19, 2024. The takeaway is greater risk of party change, higher US and global policy…