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Global

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China’s Credit Impulse Loses Its Mojo

The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural outperformer. Plus: copper is correcting, NVDA is consolidating.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
A Pause In Ex-US Global Growth Rotation?
Preliminary PMI estimates suggest that US economic leadership remained intact in June, despite previous signs that it was passing the global growth baton to the rest of the world. US manufacturing, services and composite PMIs all surpassed expectations as…
Daily Insights
Stay Neutral Gold, Despite Cyclical And Structural Tailwinds
Gold spot prices have returned a whopping 25% YTD, with the bulk of this performance having occurred in the last three months. Interestingly, these gains have occurred despite the rise in real yields, with which they are usually strongly inversely…
Daily Insights
Weak Yen Boosted Japan's Exports, Not Global Demand
Japanese exports in JPY increased from 8.3% y/y to 13.5% in May, surpassing expectations of 12.7%. 23.9% and 17.8% y/y growth in exports to the US and China, respectively, led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian export-oriented economies are generally…
Daily Insights
Singapore Electronics Exports Point To Resilient Global Growth
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions and they surprised to the upside in May. Notably, electronics exports, which are particularly sensitive to…
Daily Insights
Falling Equity Risk Premia Remove Buffer For Stocks
The equity risk premium (ERP) allows investors to assess the additional compen­sation they are offered as an enticement to assume equities’ incremental risk. The ERP measures equities’ excess return by deduct­ing the inflation-linked 10-year yield from the…
Daily Insights
Fed Easing Is A Tailwind For Gold
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, a Fed pivot to rate cuts will provide gold prices with a tailwind. At first blush, the historical evidence is mixed. While gold rallied in the three months leading up to the start of…
Daily Insights
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Gold: A Breakout Or A Fakeout?

Gold prices might experience a correction or consolidation over the near term. However, cyclical and structural forces will ultimately cause the yellow metal to trend upwards.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim
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Missing Older Workers Give The Fed A Lingering Headache

1 in 17 older Americans workers have gone missing either through ‘excess retirements’ or ‘excess mortality’. The consequent dislocation of the labour market means that the Fed’s work is not yet done. We go through some investment implications. Plus: the China and Japan rallies are exhausted.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Will Oil Continue To Extend Losses?
Earlier this year, WTI oil prices peaked on April 5th at $87.69 per barrel. They have since corrected by 12.7%. Should asset managers expect this decline to continue? Our Global Investment Strategy team believes oil prices could see some upside over the…
Daily Insights

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