President Trump shot the opening salvo of his second trade war, announcing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with a more modest 10% on China and Canadian energy. Both countries retaliated with tariffs and non-tariff measures.…
Our Global Investment strategists offered their initial thoughts on the nascent US trade war with its allies, with a few longer-term takeaways. President Trump’s decision to delay Mexico tariffs on Monday highlights the…
Markets and forecasters anticipate a “Golden Age” for Trump’s America, with US growth expectations soaring while the rest of the world lags. However, this extreme optimism means that there is a lot of room for disappointment. Cooling…
Our Geopolitical Strategy team modeled several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in a simple game theory framework. The Trump administration’s policies have created a complex web of trade and foreign…
The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component…
Despite a strong dollar, rising yields, and falling equities, oil and copper prices have recently risen. Oil has broken out above its 200-day moving average, while copper is currently testing its own. Oil’s bullish price…
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US…
In most developed economies, rising inflation expectations will lift them further above the 2 percent target, limiting the scope for further interest rate cuts. But in Japan, rising inflation expectations will lift them up to the BoJ…