Gold

In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold and other commodities, and much more.

Commodity market breadth would need to improve for it to signal bullish conditions for the aggregate commodity complex. We maintain a defensive tilt within commodities, favoring precious metals over the more cyclically sensitive energy and industrial metals.

A short guide on how best to use and interpret our real-time fractal heatmap for asset allocation.

Inflation expectations in the US remain reasonably well anchored and there are few signs of a brewing wage-price spiral. Thus, the near-term risks to growth outweigh the risks of higher inflation. Looking beyond the next year or two, however, we are worried about stagflation.

MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market.

The fact that the yellow metal’s rally has defied headwinds from key cyclical drivers suggests that the bull market is structural, not cyclical. Buy gold and gold mining stocks in absolute and relative terms.

MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise.