Government
US durable goods orders delivered a negative surprise on Wednesday. New orders for manufactured durable goods dropped by 5.4% m/m in October, below consensus estimates of a 3.2% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised down slightly to 4.0%…
In the recently held Polish general elections, the ruling Law & Justice Party (PiS) lost power. Chances are that a coalition led by the Civic Platform party will form a government next month. The new coalition ran on a pro-European Union (EU) platform…
President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.
Results from Tuesday’s elections suggest that the Democrats are doing better than what their 2024 polling are showing. While the results are marginally positive for equities, investors should not overrate this off-year election, especially considering the slowing economy and the many foreign challenges facing the US.
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, China's recently introduced debt swap program will help prevent mushrooming defaults, but it will not lead to an acceleration in growth. In August, the Ministry of Finance permitted 12 heavily…
The US House of Representatives finally got a Speaker, but according to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, his voting record indicates that he will be a populist hardliner, which increases the chance that there will be a government shutdown. …
Chinese economic data surprised to the upside on Wednesday. GDP expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q3 – beating expectations of a 4.5% y/y rise. On a quarterly basis, economic activity accelerated from 0.5% q/q to 1.3% q/q – also ahead of anticipations of 0.9% q/q.…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Trump is lined up to win the Republican presidential nomination by March 19, 2024. The takeaway is greater risk of party change, higher US and global policy uncertainty, and higher US equity…
More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.
On the surface, Chinese credit data sent a positive signal about the domestic economy. Chinese aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.1 trillion in September – exceeding both August’s CNY 3.1 trillion and expectations of CNY 3.7 trillion. However,…