High-Yield

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2025.

An analysis of historical data shows that Ba-rated bonds outperform other corporate credit tiers in the long-run on a risk-adjusted basis. That said, today’s fragile macro environment warrants a more cautious allocation. 

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in US OAS Spreads, US Exceptionalism, and “DIVE”.

A falling stock market and sticky bond yields represent the worst of both worlds for investors. We interrogate why bond yields haven’t dropped more given the large selloff seen in equities.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.

Interest rates will decline if the disinflationary trend continues, deficits are reduced, or economic growth falters. Oil prices are likely to spike over the short term, but the long-term outlook is unfavorable. Not all GenAI investments will pay off, and GenAI-induced productivity improvements do not justify current valuations.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025. 

This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we decided to harness the power of the multiverse to tell you what did happen (in at least one highly representative timeline).

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Tuesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets.

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2025. We will be back in the first week of January with our MacroQuant Model Update.

We offer 5 key investment views for US fixed income markets in 2025.