What’s going on? The market-weighted stock market is up. But the equally-weighted stock market is not up. Neither is credit. Neither are industrial metal prices. Neither is the oil price, despite two waves of OPEC output cuts. We…
Most of the profits that today’s internet companies earn stem from the quasi-monopoly power that they enjoy. According BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is possible that AI will have the…
Expectations for oil demand growth through 2023-24 are way too optimistic. Until these expectations fall to -0.5-1 percent, the oil price has further downside. Plus: collapsed complexity confirms that AI is in a mania, while basic…
President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and…
The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to…
Investors should expect high volatility and a selloff in US stocks over the short run due to the higher-than-usual risk of technical default. Investors should seek shelter in defensive sectors and large cap stocks. Long-dated…
The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies…
Erdogan will most likely lose the Turkish election but it could go onto a second round. A strong opposition majority in the assembly would justify a tactical overweight in Turkish equities on a relative basis. For now, go long…