Inflation/Deflation
Preliminary estimates suggest that consumer sentiment improved in September. The headline University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased from 67.9 to a higher-than-projected 68.5. Both the current conditions and expectations components improved…
The ECB will cut rates once more this year; however, markets underprice how far it will ease next year.
Continued deterioration in labor demand underpins our expectation for a US recession, as it will lead to slower compensation growth, hobbling consumption spending’s main driver. We also previously highlighted that the outlook for bond yields currently hinges…
ECB Governing Council members unanimously voted in favor of lowering the deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 3.50% in September, marking the second cut this year. Moreover, expectations for weaker domestic demand led the ECB to downgrade its growth forecast…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the Fed’s upcoming rate cut will temporarily alleviate some of the downward pressure on the RMB, but beyond the short term the USD will likely rebound in anticipation of a global slowdown. The…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, former President Trump still has a path to come back to power, despite his disastrous performance in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on September 10. A cascade of shifting opinion…
US headline CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% in August in line with consensus predictions. However, core CPI unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3%. Aside from airfares -- a highly volatile series which is likely to reverse in coming months given…
Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and what it means for Fed policy.
Chinese export growth in USD terms accelerated from 7.0% y/y to a larger-than-expected 8.7% in August. China’s exports to its major trading partners (US, EU and ASEAN) were all growing in August on a year-on-year basis, though at a decelerating pace in the US…