Inflation/Deflation
After surprising to the upside in July on higher energy costs, Eurozone CPI resumed its deceleration in August. Headline and core CPI declined from 2.6% y/y to 2.2% and from 2.9% to 2.8%, respectively. Energy prices contracted 0.3% y/y from July’s 1.2%…
Tokyo’s CPI is a timely leading indicator of nationwide price pressures. In August, the headline, core (ex-food) and the “core core” (ex-food and energy) measures all accelerated by larger-than-expected margins, reaching 2.6%, 2.4% and 1.6% y/y, respectively.…
Australia’s CPI inflation eased from 3.8% y/y to a higher-than-expected 3.5% in July. The trimmed-mean measure eased from 4.1% to 3.8%. However, the Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates contributed to July’s easing in price pressures. The…
During his Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell dispelled any remaining doubts about a September rate cut. Still, easing monetary policy is unlikely to result in a soft landing. First, recessions have historically started shortly after the Fed began cutting…
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure surprised to the upside in August, rising from 100.3 to 103.3, above expectations of 100.7. Consumers’ assessment of present economic conditions climbed 0.8 points to 134.4, while their expectations about the…
Brazilian equities have largely underperformed their EM peers in USD terms since the beginning of the year. Rising public debt and inflation are the two main forces weighing on the Brazilian bourse. Our Emerging Market strategists expect public debt-to-GDP…
Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.75% to 3.5% in August. It had kept rates on hold in June, after having led many other major DM central banks in easing policy in May. The Riksbank also signaled it could cut as many as…
Back in May, our Commodity and Energy strategists argued that OPEC, EIA, and IEA oil demand forecasts were likely too optimistic. Indeed, while all three major oil price forecasters projected a moderation in demand this year, none of them anticipated weak…
It didn't take long for markets to utterly shrug off the surprise rise in July's unemployment rate. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed higher than it was the day before the July Employment Situation report was released. The Russell 2000 gained 5.2% since…