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Inflation/Deflation

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Bank Of England Inches Toward Rate Cuts

An update to our views on UK rates and currency following today’s Bank of England meeting.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Ryan Swift, Chester Ntonifor
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Four Contentious Claims

In this week’s report, we defend four out-of-consensus claims. Claim #1: Underlying inflation in the US is not reaccelerating. Claim #2: The US labor market is set to weaken abruptly. Claim #3: The S&P 500 will drop to 3700 in 2025. Claim #4: Japan is not in danger of a currency crisis.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Mexico: Buy On Election Dips

Mexico’s election and the US election pose short-term and potentially medium-term risks to Mexican financial assets. But unless the ruling party wins a double supermajority, we remain structurally overweight Mexico relative to global stocks excluding the United States.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
The Riksbank Eases Policy
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday from 4% to 3.75%. The policy statement highlighted that inflation is approaching its 2% target, that leading indicators are pointing to further downside in prices and…
Daily Insights
The RBA Forecast High Inflation And Subdued Growth
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.35% at its May meeting, in line with expectations. The statement highlighted that inflation continues to moderate, though at a slower-than-expected pace. Board members also pointed out…
Daily Insights
Suez Canal Transit Hits New Lows
Transit through the Suez Canal has hit a new low. The 7-day moving average of daily ship transit calls is currently at 30, less than half of what it was at the end of 2023. The decline in volume has been even more severe, with metric tons passing through the…
Daily Insights
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Timing The Breakout In Bond Yields

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
ISM Services PMI Contracts In April
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in April. The headline index fell to 49.4 from 51.4, below expectations of a faster pace of growth. April’s contraction ends a streak of 15 consecutive months of services-sector expansion. Two alternative…
Daily Insights
What Inflation Rate Do People Prefer?
The Federal Reserve has a target inflation of 2%. But what level of inflation does the American public actually prefer? A recent NBER paper titled “Inflation Preferences” by Afrouzi, Dietrich, Myrseth, Priftis, and Schoenle surveyed one thousand…
Daily Insights
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The Trading Range Holds

Some thoughts on this morning’s employment report and recent trends in US economic data.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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