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Inflation/Deflation

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Killing Inflation Without Killing The Economy Is Not A Done-Deal

The disinflation to date has been benign because it has come almost entirely from improving supply. But the supply-side tailwind has exhausted, so the last mile of the journey to 2 percent inflation will be the hardest, especially in the US and the UK. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, we highlight an interesting sector pair-trade.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The RBA Isn't Ruling Out Further Tightening
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday. The updated economic forecasts show a downward revision to the growth outlook for this year versus the previous round of projections released in November. The…
Daily Insights
Are Price Pressures Reaccelerating?
Although our base case remains that a continuation of the disinflation process will allow policymakers to pivot to rate cuts this year, we continue to monitor risks to this outlook. On this front, some key indicators have recently moved in the wrong…
Daily Insights
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The Risk Of Overheating

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Indonesian Election 2024: New Order 2.0?

Indonesia will not revert to dictatorship. Yet the guardrails against authoritarianism are also constraining the actions of the next government in tackling near term domestic and regional challenges. For long-term positioning, use potential selloff from a “dictatorship scare” to build position as structural outlook for Indonesia is positive due to the China-West divorce and the global energy transition.

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
January Survey Results: Invincible?
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ views on tech stocks, the US economy in 2024, and China’s contribution to global growth. Regarding tech stocks, 44% of respondents believe the rally as…
Daily Insights
Treasury Selloff Continues
Treasury yields continued to push higher on Monday, bringing the total increase over the past two trading days to 29bps. The move comes on the back of strong economic data releases indicating that conditions in the US are resilient. Notably, Friday’s…
Daily Insights
Sweden Riksbank Monitor Update
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service upgrades Swedish government bonds to neutral from underweight within European fixed-income portfolios. The Riksbank kept its policy rate steady at 4% last week. Governor Erik Thedéen and the Riksbank…
Daily Insights
US Economic Surprises Are Rising Again
After falling throughout most of the second half of 2023, the US economic surprise index has surged over the past few weeks, indicating that economic conditions are firm at the start of the year. Indeed, Manufacturing PMIs delivered a positive signal last…
Daily Insights
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Timing The Transition From Soft Landing To Recession

Our thoughts on bond positioning following this morning’s employment data.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics