Inflation Protected

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2026.

The April CPI report showed clear evidence of the direct effect of higher oil prices on inflation but, so far, limited evidence of passthrough to core.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2026.

So far, there is no evidence of second-round effects from the oil price shock showing up in the US economy. Fed rate hikes are off the table unless those effects emerge.

FOMC participants are coalescing around the idea that the funds rate will stay on hold for some time, an outcome that is now well priced in the bond market and that will not materially change under a new Fed Chair.

Volatility is high, but the path for yields is clearer than it looks. Across three oil scenarios, we show how policy responses shape fixed income markets and why the balance of risks still points to lower yields.

Inflation’s underlying trend was headed lower prior to the Iran war. This makes the recent back-up in bond yields look like an attractive buying opportunity.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2026.

The gap between PCE and CPI inflation will narrow within the next few months, mostly driven by core PCE inflation converging toward its trimmed mean.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2026.