Japanese Yen

A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.

The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.

EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals.

The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive.

In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.

We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.