The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.
Our strategists recommend shorting EUR/JPY, citing stretched valuations and rising reversal risks. The cross has surged more than 6% since late May, triggering new short positions from the Counterpoint, European Investment Strategy,…
The Upper House loss of Japan’s ruling coalition reflects growing political uncertainty, reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. The LDP-led ruling coalition has lost control of both houses of…
EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals.
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s…
In this note, we reaffirm our underweight position in JGBs and long yen positions given the BoJ’s meeting overnight.
The BoJ’s decision to keep rates unchanged while announcing a tapering of bond purchases reinforces our underweight stance on JGBs and long bias on the yen. While the decision was broadly neutral, the reduction in asset purchases…
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions:…