The Brazilian economy has managed the pandemic relatively well this year due to generous fiscal spending. However, fiscal constraints now threaten to derail the recovery. Fiscal sustainability, an issue even prior to the…
In late-October, Latin American (“LATAM”) relative equity performance was not meaningfully higher than its late-April low. This month, LATAM has outperformed global stocks significantly and is now challenging its 200-…
On Monday, Paulo Guedes, Brazil’s economy minister, argued that the Brazilian real has likely overshot its equilibrium level of around USD-BRL = 5. The chart above highlights the divergence that has developed between the…
Mexican equities have steadily underperformed their US counterparts since early 2013, when a large wave of peso depreciation began. Mexican stocks have also underperformed EM equities significantly this year. Could Mexican assets…
BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service reiterates that within EM benchmarks, investors should structurally underweight Brazilian equities, local currency bonds and sovereign credit. Barring dramatic policy…
Last Friday, my colleague Dhaval Joshi and I held a webcast discussing investment strategies. The topics of discussion included global equity valuations, mega-cap stocks leadership and the outlook for EM stocks, fixed-income and…
Asian equities have recently rallied in a parabolic fashion relative to their Latin American counterparts thanks to Asia’s comparatively large weighting in tech stocks, along with its lower count of COVID-19 cases. This…
Brazilian share prices and the currency have benefited from the global risk-on environment and rising commodities prices. However, the domestic backdrop remains extremely challenging as BCA Research’s Emerging Markets…
Please note that yesterday we published Special Report titled Do Not Overlook China’s Innovation Drive. Please click on it to access it. Today, we publish analysis on Brazil and Ukraine. Chart I-1Brazilian Share Prices…