Manufacturing
Preliminary estimates suggested that US durable goods orders stagnated in August after having surged 9.9% m/m in July, and beating expectations they would decline. Excluding the volatile transportation component, however, durable goods grew a robust 0.5%. …
The Eurozone’s Bright Spots
…
After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession to start in the US within the next six months. Accordingly, we recommend that investors underweight stocks and overweight government bonds.
We highlighted last week that while the Politburo policy announcements are unlikely to produce a meaningful business cycle recovery in China, they nevertheless administered a shot of adrenaline to investor sentiment. Chinese equities, China-plays and other…
This week has not been short of developments on Chinese policy. After unleashing a monetary policy blitz, the authorities held an unscheduled Politburo meeting resulting in a pledge to take actions towards stabilizing the housing market and to support fiscal…
In a widely expected move, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cut its policy rate for a third consecutive meeting on Thursday, from 1.25% to 1.00%. The move marked President Thomas Jordan’s final policy decision and his incoming successor Martin Schlegel…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity and Energy strategy service, even though US crude output will continue rising, a meaningful growth acceleration is unlikely. US producers adjust their output in response to market conditions. In the past, a selloff in…
China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance.
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.5% to 3.25% in September, marking its third cut this year. It embarked on its easing cycle in May, leading many other DM central banks, and has been sending increasingly dovish messages…
Export dynamics from small open economies are a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Taiwan export orders accelerated from 4.8% y/y to a faster-than-anticipated 9.1% in August. The faster pace of growth was also broad-based among the country’s…