Manufacturing
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will come to fruition. This Nordic country…
Sentiment among German companies declined in August from 87.0 to 86.6. Current conditions shed 0.6 points to 86.5 while the expectations component ticked 0.2 points lower. It nevertheless exceeded consensus expectations for a larger decline. Deteriorating…
Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?
The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries.
Preliminary estimates suggest that with the exception of the UK (see Country Focus), manufacturing activity remains lackluster in DM economies. Manufacturing declined at a slower pace in Japan and Australia but the contractions unexpectedly accelerated in the…
Canadian headline CPI decelerated from 2.7% y/y to 2.5% in July, the slowest pace in over 3 years. Notably, core median and trimmed-mean CPI eased further than expected, to 2.4% and 2.7% y/y respectively, 0.1 ppt below anticipations. Lower prices for…
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.75% to 3.5% in August. It had kept rates on hold in June, after having led many other major DM central banks in easing policy in May. The Riksbank also signaled it could cut as many as…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy and US Bond Strategy services, the drivers of the structural downtrend in real interest rates include: demographic trends (declining fertility rates, longer life expectancy and a rising dependency…
The ZEW survey of Eurozone business expectations decreased by a whopping 25.8 points to 17.9 in August. Notably, expectations for Germany’s current situation disappointed, worsening from an already depressed -68.9 level to -77.3, and expectations of future…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, while the idea that Donald Trump would allow China to build factories in the US does not mesh with the contemporary media narrative, it would fit the historical track record. The last time that the US had…