Manufacturing
Negotiated wages rose 4.7% y/y in Q1, from 4.5% y/y in Q4 in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, preliminary estimates for the Eurozone Composite PMI surprised to the upside in May. Although wage growth is the main driver of services inflation and Euro Area economic…
Preliminary estimates suggest that manufacturing activity generally improved across DM economies in May. Manufacturing PMIs for the US, the Eurozone, Japan and the UK all improved from their April levels. Notably, manufacturing activity started growing…
Industrial metals have outperformed the broad commodity complex this year and raced above the broad commodity complex even more meaningfully since the beginning of April. Our Commodity and Energy strategists have highlighted that the overrepresentation of…
Emerging market stocks have outperformed their global counterparts by 4 percentage points in USD terms since February according to MSCI indices. They have gotten a boost from the bounce in the global manufacturing cycle. The MSCI Emerging Market index moves…
US industrial production stalled in April against expectations of a moderate pace of growth (0.1% m/m) and March’s growth rate was revised lower from 0.4% m/m to 0.1% m/m. Notably, pro-cyclical manufacturing production unexpectedly contracted 0.3% m/m from a…
Investor and business sentiment continues to improve in the Eurozone. The ZEW Expectations series for the Eurozone (+3.1 to 47 in May) and Germany (+4.2 to 47.1, above expectations) strengthened to 27-month highs. Moreover, the spread between the expectations…
We marked the first X on our Equity Downgrade Checklist and the latest JOLTS, Employment Situation and SLOOS releases brought us closer to ticking some others. We remain tactically neutral on equities but expect that we will underweight them as excess savings are further depleted, leading labor market indicators continue to soften and consumer credit performance continues to fray.
Mexico’s election and the US election pose short-term and potentially medium-term risks to Mexican financial assets. But unless the ruling party wins a double supermajority, we remain structurally overweight Mexico relative to global stocks excluding the United States.
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday from 4% to 3.75%. The policy statement highlighted that inflation is approaching its 2% target, that leading indicators are pointing to further downside in prices and…
The revival in global growth momentum continued in April. The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, marking its third consecutive month of expansion. Details underscored solid demand conditions. Output and new orders continued to rise and new…