Manufacturing
We look beneath headline data to assess the state of the labor market in cyclical goods-producing industries that have previously led overall nonfarm payrolls and in the services segments that have recently been leading the charge. The bottom-up view looks a lot like the top-down view: the labor market is softening, but very slowly, and offers no indications that a recession is at hand.
German industrial production growth accelerated from an upwardly revised 1.3% m/m to 2.1% m/m in February, registering the fastest pace in 13 months and largely beating expectations of a slowdown. A 7.9% m/m increase in the construction sector was the top…
Europe credit flows are stabilizing, hence a major drag on the region’s growth will dissipate. What does this development imply for European equities?
As a small open economy, Sweden’s economic performance is a good barometer of global growth developments. Swedish PMIs for March were overall positive. The Manufacturing PMI rose to the 50 boom-bust line following 19 consecutive months of contraction and…
The US manufacturing sector appears to be enjoying a revival. As we highlighted yesterday, the ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly returned to growth in March and the S&P Global US manufacturing PMI remains in expansion territory. Yet, service sector…
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 in March, better than expectations of 48.4 and breaking above the 50 boom-bust line for the first time since September 2022. Notably the new orders component rebounded to 51.4, marking the second expansionary reading…
Italy is no longer Europe’s problem child. Investors will be better off reassessing their views of Italian assets, which represent a buying opportunity on a structural time horizon.
The recent rally in commodity markets is drawing the attention of the investment community and financial media. It’s not just cocoa – which has experienced a staggering 118.4% year to date increase that has further pushed up its price gains to 342% since…
Chinese industrial profit growth surged to 10.2% y/y in the first two months of the year after having contracted by 2.3% in 2023. Does this rebound in profits suggest that investors should become more optimistic about the Chinese economy and risk assets? A…
US durable goods orders delivered a positive signal for the business spending outlook. The 1.4% increase in new orders for durable goods in February marks the first expansion in three months and beat expectations of a 1.0% rise. Increases in new orders…