The first two regional fed manufacturing surveys for February delivered strong upside surprises. The New York Fed’s Empire Index surged from -43.7 to -2.4, unwinding its January slump. Similarly, the Philly Fed current…
The German economy was a laggard at the end of last year, posting a 0.3% q/q real GDP contraction in Q4 2023 while the broader Eurozone economy stagnated. Importantly, while economists have been revising up their 2024 forecasts…
Over the past few months we have been highlighting that there are some budding signs of a recovery in global manufacturing activity. Most notably, the new orders-to-inventories ratio of Sweden’s manufacturing PMI has been…
Easier financial conditions, rising home prices, rebounding consumer sentiment, and a stabilization in manufacturing activity all augur well for near-term US growth prospects. An unsustainably low savings rate is a key risk to the US…
German factory orders delivered a positive surprise on Tuesday, unexpectedly increasing on both a monthly and annual basis. The 8.9% m/m increase in December came in well above consensus estimates of a 0.2% m/m decline. This…
After falling throughout most of the second half of 2023, the US economic surprise index has surged over the past few weeks, indicating that economic conditions are firm at the start of the year. Indeed, Manufacturing PMIs…
China’s official NBS PMI indicates that growth conditions remain sluggish. Although the composite index ticked up from 50.3 to 50.9, it is still barely in expansionary territory. Notably, the manufacturing PMI – which…
Over the past few months, we have been highlighting that several indicators are pointing to an industrial recovery in Europe. Notably, Swedish indicators were a cause for optimism. The Swedish PMI’s new orders-to-…
S&P 500 operating margins have been in a downdraft for nearly two years – but the consensus is still penciling in expansion for 2024. How likely is that? Our US Equity Strategy colleagues have addressed this question…
China’s industrial profits registered their second consecutive annual contraction last year, falling by 2.3% in 2023. The full year contraction comes despite a surge in industrial profits near year-end. Profit growth…