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Manufacturing

Will Technicals Provide A Tailwind To Commodities?
The commodity complex struggled last year with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index falling by 12% despite the relatively favorable performance of other cyclical financial assets. Several factors contributed to this weakness. In the case of oil, an increase in…
Daily Insights
Shrinking Global Trade/Manufacturing Hurts EM Stocks
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the recent improvement in global manufacturing and Asian exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle amelioration rather than a cyclical recovery. Global trade/manufacturing is the key driver…
Daily Insights
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Geopolitical Charts To Kick Off 2024

The market’s pricing of a soft landing means that geopolitical risks are becoming more, not less, relevant in 2024. US domestic divisions will invite challenges as foreign powers rightly fear that US policy will turn more hawkish after the election.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
The Dollar In 2024
The dollar has kicked off 2024 on a tear. The closely followed DXY index bottomed on Thursday December 28th, and has since risen almost 2%. Year-to-date, the only major currency that has held up against the dollar is the Mexican peso, with the yen continuing…
Daily Insights
Global Factory Activity Remains Soft
December PMIs indicate that the global manufacturing sector is not experiencing a meaningful rebound. The Global Manufacturing PMI declined from 49.3 to 49.0 in December, marking the sixteenth consecutive month of a sub-50 reading. The output, new orders,…
Daily Insights
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Vietnam: Is The Cyclical Downturn Over?

Vietnamese stocks may not see an immediate rally as global manufacturing and exports remain weak. But investors with longer-term horizons should stay overweight this market.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
Mainstream EM Will Disappoint In H1
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, domestic demand and corporate profits will disappoint across mainstream Emerging Market economies (excluding China, India, Korea, and Taiwan) in H1 2024. Retail sales volume growth has been…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Will EM Cross The Rubicon?
Special Report

The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-cycle bounce rather than the beginning of a cyclical recovery.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Rate Cut Expectations Boost German Investor Morale
The continued improvement in German investor morale captured by the ZEW survey corroborates other indicators pointing to near-term support for Eurozone stocks. Economic sentiment jumped three points to a 9-month high of 12.8 in December, surprising…
Daily Insights
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Strategy Outlook – 2024 Key Views: Here Comes The Kink

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics