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Manufacturing

Lags And Loops

While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global economy begins to sink into recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Global Manufacturing Downturn Slows
The Global Manufacturing PMI suggests that although the global manufacturing downturn remains intact, the pace of deterioration slowed in August. The headline PMI index ticked up by 0.4 points to 49. In particular, the Output, New Orders, and New Export…
Daily Insights
Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Postponed – But Not Avoided

A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Where Things Stand

Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Copper Prices: On A Downward Slope

Contrary to the widespread belief in the investment community, the global copper supply-demand balance is no longer in deficit. Red metal prices are set to decline by another 10-15% as the global copper market will shift to a larger surplus in the next six months.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy
US And China Agree To Hold Semiannual Trade Dialogue
The US and China agreed to hold trade talks more regularly on August 28, even as they fell short of establishing a strategic détente or general reduction of tensions. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited Beijing and met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang…
Daily Insights
Will US Data Deliver More Strong Positive Surprises?
On the surface, the latest uptick in the General Business Activity Index of the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Survey suggests that manufacturing activity is no longer deteriorating at an accelerating pace. The indicator rose by 2.8 points to -17.2 in August —…
Daily Insights
Tokyo Headline CPI Inflation Dips Below 3%
Tokyo’s headline CPI inflation fell below expectations in August, easing from 3.2% y/y to 2.9% y/y – slightly below anticipations of 3.0% y/y and the first dip below 3% in nearly one year. Similarly, the slowdown in the ex-fresh food measure from 3.0% y/y to…
Daily Insights
Euro Area Earnings Outlook
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the profit outlook for Eurozone earnings continues to deteriorate. The team’s earnings model for Eurozone equities continues to point to a deepening profit contraction in the order of 24%…
Daily Insights
Germany's IFO Disappoints
Germany’s IFO survey sent a downbeat message on Friday. The headline Business Climate Index fell by 1.7 points to 85.7, below expectations of 86.8 and near the 85.2 level at which it bottomed in October. A 2.4-point decline in the Current Assessment…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics