Economic data released over the holiday period extended recent trends, reflecting a softening global economy with resilient US growth, and an ailing manufacturing sector. The December global manufacturing PMI declined to 49.6…
US November housing data was mixed, but still reflected a weak picture. Housing starts were down 1.8% m/m, below expectations of a 2.6% increase. However, building permits were stronger than expected, increasing 6.1%. Units under…
The December Empire Manufacturing index missed expectations, slowing to 0.2 from 31.2 in November. Most cyclical components eased, suggesting last month's surge was a post-election blip. The new orders subcomponent…
Chinese activity indicators were mixed in November, reflecting the dynamic of a resilient supply side coupled with weak demand. Industrial production growth was roughly flat at 5.4% y/y vs. 5.3% in October, while retail sales…
December flash PMIs for the core advanced economies showed service sector growth picking up. Manufacturing keeps contracting, and the US continues to outperform its DM peers. The US composite index beat expectations and…
The post-COVID US recovery was different from previous cycles. Despite an ebullient economy, US consumers and firms have just not been feeling it, as reflected by the depressed signals from so-called soft, survey-based indicators…
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism index beat expectations, jumping to 101.7 from 93.7 in October. Outside of inventory satisfaction, which was flat, all index subcomponents increased, led by measures of expectations. The…
German factory orders decreased less than expected in October, falling 1.5% m/m after rising 7.2% in September. Excluding major orders, which often distort the overall picture, core new orders rose 0.1%, after rising 2.7% a month…