Mega Themes
A market becomes inefficient, illiquid, and vulnerable to a phase transition when the ‘wisdom of crowds’ switches to the ‘madness of crowds.’ This switch from market wisdom to market madness may be the most significant recurring behavioural opportunity in active fund management and can be exploited in real-time by measuring the market’s complexity.
This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.
Crypto adoption is set to accelerate following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which establishes a regulatory framework for digital assets. Companies across the crypto ecosystem are well-positioned to benefit from digital asset growth and price appreciation. Crypto equities are a new strategic allocation, and we recommend using pullbacks to build a long-term position using ETFs.
Cybersecurity is a strategic investment theme, which looks particularly interesting in light of the trade war and heightened geopolitical tensions. It is less exposed to tariffs than other industries and, if anything, benefits from geopolitical tensions as customers seek protection from international cyberattacks and cybercrime. The industry’s fundamentals are improving, while valuations are moderating. A recent pullback presents an attractive entry point into the theme.
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks yesterday were in-line with our base case expectation that the Fed will not cut rates proactively in the face of rising tariff-driven inflation.
