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Monetary

The BoC Dove Soars
The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced its policy rate by 25bps for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. We highlighted in a recent Insight that the soft June inflation print and weakening labor market increased the odds of more aggressive BoC easing. …
Daily Insights
UK Services Inflation Still Too High For BoE's Comfort
UK’s CPI growth stands right on the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. However, services inflation remains sticky, growing at a constant 5.7% y/y in June. Moreover, the deceleration in wage growth remains insufficient to temper inflationary pressures in the…
Daily Insights
China’s Surprise Rate Cut Unlikely To Move The Needle
The PBoC lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.80% to 1.70% on Monday. The 5-year and 1-year loan prime rates declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 3.85% and 3.35%, respectively. However, this 10-bps cut is unlikely to have any meaningful stimulative…
Daily Insights
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Notes On The EUR, GBP And JPY

We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and suggests a few trade ideas.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
What’s Ailing ASEAN Markets?
The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the past year despite the powerful rally in the developed markets. They have also underperformed their EM benchmark. Our Emerging Markets…
Daily Insights
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Geopolitics In Q3 2024

Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
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It’s Bear-zin Now: A Q&A

Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
ZEW Survey Is Too Optimistic
The Euro Area economy broadly surprised to the upside in the first half of 2024. Cooling inflation lifted real wages and the global late cycle amelioration benefitted the pro-cyclical Euro Area economy, but these tailwinds are fading. First, monetary…
Daily Insights
Canadian Bonds Are Still A Good Bet
Markets had already been sussing out that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut rates for the second time when it meets next week, and this morning’s soft CPI report all but confirmed it. The last remaining obstacle in the way of another BoC rate cut was the…
Daily Insights
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US Election: Don’t Overrate Personalities

The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

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