Monetary
Results of the New York Fed’s November Survey of Consumer Expectations corroborate the signal from the University of Michigan’s preliminary results that inflation expectations are receding. The 0.2 percentage point drop in one-year ahead inflation…
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep rates unchanged last week. …
Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.
The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was corroborated by the unemployment…
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in the August survey and the lowest…
The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local governments, enterprises, and consumers. …
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Fed will be surprisingly dovish in 2024 but it has a poor track record of avoiding recessions once monetary policy is restrictive. The independence of the Fed is misunderstood: The Fed is…
Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.
On the surface, Chinese export data delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, painting a favorable picture of the global manufacturing cycle. Exports unexpectedly grew on a year-over-year basis in November for the first time since April. The 0.5% y/y…
The Japanese yen strengthened considerably on Thursday after comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda caused investors to bring forward their expectation of the timing of the end of negative rates. In particular, Ueda noted that monetary policy…