Monetary
Poland’s inflation will stay elevated. And yet, its return to the European mainstream has improved its financial market outlook. Accordingly, we are recommending new trades on Polish equity, fixed income, and currency.
Tuesday’s CPI release confirmed that the disinflationary trend in Canada remains intact. After a brief relapse this summer, Canada’s inflation is headed in the right direction. As anticipated, headline CPI inflation came in at 3.1% y/y in October, down from…
The minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting revealed that there is a consensus among policymakers to proceed carefully. Another rate increase is appropriate only if "incoming inflation indicated that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective was…
After dipping into negative territory between June and early August, the Global Economic Surprise Index has since rebounded, signalling an improvement in economic momentum. Initially, this rebound was isolated to the US. However, the trend has been broadening…
Mid-caps are the best of both worlds and are an excellent strategic overweight thanks to their size premium, but also better financial quality and higher dividend yield than Small. We are bullish on Mid near term and believe that this may be a great trade. We will initiate a position in the S&P 400 as a tactical overweight but will monitor it very closely.
The US Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) continues to send a poor signal about the economic outlook. The monthly pace of contraction quickened to -0.8% m/m in October from -0.7% m/m in September. In terms of the drivers of the monthly…
The soft-landing narrative is gaining momentum, pushing equities higher and potentially offering investors a better entry point to position against it. Financial markets appear to have been surprised by the comforting inflation picture painted by the…
Global market sentiment has improved notably since late-October. In the equity space, DM and EM stocks have gained 8.5% and 7.8% respectively since October 26. Regarding currencies, the counter-cyclical DXY index has lost 2.2% so far in November. And as we…
BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service continues to recommend a neutral allocation to TIPS for now, but with a bias to turn underweight. The team calculates a forecasted range for headline CPI inflation of 0.9% to 2.9% over the next 12 months. For core…
In this report, we evaluate the risk to carry trades in the coming months.