Special Report

The Labour Party’s comeback in the UK is widely expected and will lead to fiscal stimulus consisting of increased public spending with minimal tax hikes. But a sweeping single-party majority will reduce social unrest only at the cost…

The consensus soft-landing narrative is wrong. The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025. We were tactically bullish on stocks most of last year, turned neutral earlier this year, and are going underweight today.…

Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?

Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically…

Special Report

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However,…

Europe did not witness a major policy reversal. Inflationary pressures are coming down, enabling the ECB to cut rates and European states to maintain soft budgets. Geopolitical challenges ensure that European parties continue to…

The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?

Although the comprehensive economic surprise indexes continued weakening in May, the metrics in our equity downgrade checklist haven’t softened enough to check more boxes now. While we continue to expect the US economy will enter a…