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Special Report Executive Summary The Good: There are compelling reasons to believe the Ukraine war will not break out into a broader NATO-Russia war, i.e. World War III. The Bad: The 1945 peace settlement is breaking down and the world is…
Executive Summary Petrocurrencies Have Lagged Terms Of Trade  Petrocurrencies have lagged the surge in crude prices. This has been specific to the currency space since energy stocks have been in an epic bull market.Both cyclical and…
Special Report Executive Summary Oil Remains A Prominent Inflation Variable  Tight oil and metals markets will translate into persistently high inflation and inflation expectations over the next 5 – 10 years. High and volatile…
Due to travel commitments, there will be no Counterpoint report next week. Instead, we will send you a timely update and analysis of the Ukraine Crisis written by my colleague Matt Gertken, BCA Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Executive…
  The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil climbed more than 7% to $116 on Monday. The big move higher highlights that geopolitics continues to inject supply uncertainty which is driving up the risk premium priced into oil markets…
Executive Summary Higher Prices Expected  Global oil supply will move lower for a few months, until shipping can be re-routed and re-priced in response to sanctions against Russian oil producers and refiners.  In the…
Special Report Executive Summary Failure Of Iran Deal Tightens Oil Supply  The US and Iran suspended their attempt to negotiate a nuclear deal on March 11. Countries often get cold feet before major agreements but there are good reasons to…
Special Report Executive Summary Tight Inventories Spike Metals  Russia's war against Ukraine is a watershed moment, which will realign production, distribution and consumption of commodities globally. The development of new sources…
Executive Summary Euro Natgas Soars; LME Nickel Squeezed  Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak's threat to halt shipmentsof natgas on Nord Stream 1 to Europe lifted European gas prices 25% overnight, and will…
Executive Summary US Can Do Without Russia's Oil, EU, NATO … Not So Much  The US will ban Russian oil imports shortly.  This is not as big a deal markets had feared over the weekend, when news of a possible ban of…