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Policy

China: Taking Notes From Client Meetings
Our China Investment Strategy team recently met with clients in China to assess investor sentiment and discuss the outlook as Beijing unveils new stimulus measures. China’s economic recovery faces headwinds and is unlikely to stabilize until mid-2025.…
Daily Insights
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A Gradual Approach In Response To Uncertainty

This Strategy Insight presents our view on today’s rate cut by the Bank of England as well as the budget announced by the UK government last week.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper
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Raising Our US Recession Probability Following Trump’s Victory

The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75%.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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It’s Not 2016 All Over Again

Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
Trump’s Historic Comeback: What Catches Our Eye
Our US Political strategists assessed the magnitude of the Republican sweep and discuss the path ahead as they take control of Washington. The GOP sweep was a resounding victory as they also clinched the popular vote. The “Blue Wall” (Wisconsin, Michigan,…
Daily Insights
BoE: A Hawkish Cut Signals The MPC Is In Charge
The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish guidance strikes the balance the BoE…
Daily Insights
Fed: Marginally Less Dovish
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected yet introduced uncertainty on the timing of its next move. The statement was relatively unchanged, except for the removal of a segment from September highlighting they had gained greater confidence…
Daily Insights
Trump And China
Will the prospect of expanding trade tensions lead to more Chinese stimulus, and create an opportunity for Chinese equities? Not necessarily, as the election results were already factored in our EM and China strategists’ views. The Trump victory is not a…
Daily Insights
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Trump's Historic Comeback: What Catches Our Eye

Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unilateral, with US assets outperforming initially.

BCA Special Reports by Matt Gertken
The Fed: Politically Biased, Or Structurally Dovish?
Given the charged atmosphere surrounding the US election, our Bank Credit Analyst colleagues investigate whether the Fed’s dovish pivot last December was politically motivated. The Fed’s actions appear overly dovish, but the answer lies deeper. Their…
Daily Insights

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