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Germany: Sick But Not Dead

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Services Inflation Still Too High For October ECB Cut
France’s and Spain’s preliminary September CPI readings declined on a month-on-month basis, clocking in at 1.5% and 1.7% y/y respectively, and undershooting consensus expectations. Germany’s and Italy’s updates are due on Monday and the Eurozone CPI will be…
Daily Insights
Uneven Upside Surprise In Eurozone Q2 Growth
Eurozone GDP surprised to the upside in Q2, growing by 0.3% q/q annualized against expectations of 0.2%. Stronger-than-expected expansions in France (0.3% q/q vs 0.2%) and Spain (0.8% q/q vs 0.5%), as well as steady growth in Italy (0.2% q/q), offset a…
Daily Insights
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Too Late To Sell France?

European assets are selling off as investors panic about the upcoming French election. Is this panic justified, and if so, for how long?

European Investment Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
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Where To Find Value In DM Government Bonds

In this Special Report we assess the absolute and relative attractiveness of developed market government bonds using several fair value models. Longer-term investors who are focused on value should overweight US long-maturity bonds, and favor Spanish, Australian, and potentially UK government bonds within a DM ex-US allocation.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Jonathan LaBerge
Southern and Northern Europe: Role Reversal
Italy and Spain have a poor reputation when it comes to their economies. The European debt crisis affected them more than other Euro Area countries. Their housing markets collapsed and debt cost soared. France and Germany, while also affected, were the bright…
Daily Insights
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A Nascent Mini Cycle

Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
Italy And Spain Are Outperforming In 2023
Euro Area stocks have had a strong 2023, rising by 18.8% year-to-date, only slightly behind the 19.1% gain captured by US equities, and outperforming the ACWI’s 14.3% increase. In particular, the Italian index’s 35.3% year-to-date surge stands out among…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Data Raises Odds Hiking Cycle Is Over
Eurozone economic data sent a positive signal on Monday. Preliminary CPI releases from Germany and Spain show price pressures continue to moderate. In Germany, the harmonized index declined by 0.2% m/m while the annual rate of change eased from 4.3% y/y to…
Daily Insights
Mediterranean Bloc: From Foreign Borrowers To Surplus Nations
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Mediterranean bloc’s move from current account deficit to current account surplus nations greatly limits the risk of a new sovereign debt crisis. A combination of reforms, fiscal rigor,…
Daily Insights

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