Swiss National Bank will have to resort to negative interest rates and FX intervention before year-end. Swiss inflation fell to 0% year-over-year in April, or the lower end of the SNB’s 0%-2% target range, and the continued…
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.
The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations reinforces our defensive stance, with growth concerns deepening even as long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. The survey is a useful cross-check against broader sentiment…
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing…
While inflation concerns prevail in the US, Swiss inflation hit its lowest level in almost four years. Headline CPI contracted 0.1% m/m in January, leaving the annual inflation rate at 0.4%, near the bottom of the Swiss National Bank…
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a…
The Swiss KOF Barometer is a composite leading indicator of the Swiss economy. It surprised to the upside in September coming in at 105.5 against expectations of 101.0. The August reading was also significantly revised higher,…
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
BCA Research’s European Investment strategists looked at previous episodes of carry-trade blowups and assessed the performance of the Eurozone’s key sectors, national markets, and currencies three and six months…