Trade

The Trump administration posits that the world owes the US for the provision of its security. In this report, we perform a quantitative analysis to come up with a naïve estimate of the cost of that peace. More importantly (and more seriously), our qualitative assessment argues that save for a number of frontline countries that rely on the US defense umbrella, the vast majority of the world faces manageable security threats due to the complex multipolar global environment and a growing number of alternatives to the US security blanket.

The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high. 

In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies.

Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How should investors position themselves in this tricky context?

This week, our three screeners focus on providing equity insights based on the impact of tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty in general, helping clients identify stocks exposed to these shocks.   

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.

This is a follow-up report on Bessenomics – the policy mix that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to pursue. The direction of US and global financial markets depends on the amount of fiscal tightening required to bring down US interest rates. Can the Trump administration cut fiscal spending just enough to bring down US bond yields but not cause a recession?

The 10% tariff hike announced on Saturday will likely serve as the opening salvo in a broader wave of protectionist measures. In this report, we assess the increase in US import tariffs on China. While the direct impact on China’s overall economy may be manageable, the country’s economy faces significant risks from potential disruptions in global trade.