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Trade / BOP

Egypt’s Yield Trap: Steer Clear

Egypt’s underlying inflation pressures are much higher than the headline CPI numbers imply. Real interest rates have plunged. As such, domestic bond yields have stayed high for a reason. Steer clear.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
US-China Talks: Limited Deal Possible, Structural Competition Intact
The US and China appear to be moving toward a trade deal, though it remains unclear whether the goal is simply damage control or a genuine expansion of market access. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on October 30 in South Korea, with both sides…
Daily Insights by Matt Gertken
Manufacturing Relocation To ASEAN And India: A Reality Check (Part 2)

Investors should not count on buoyant growth in the ASEAN and Indian economies because of manufacturing relocation away from China in the next couple of years.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Armen Hamazaspyan
Beyond The Hype: Decoding China’s Manufacturing Offshoring (Part 1)

With Sino-US tensions flaring up again, will Chinese manufacturers accelerate their overseas capacity shift?  In this Special Report we examine China’s manufacturing offshoring through multiple lenses and tackle the key questions shaping its next phase.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Jing Sima
AI’s Growing Impact on Global Trade
AI-related trade and frontloading lifted global trade growth in 2025 but also increased the risk of a slowdown next year, according to the WTO’s latest Global Trade Outlook. The organization sharply revised up its forecast for 2025 merchandise trade volume…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Assessing Risk To The Euro Rally
The euro’s strong performance this year remains underpinned by structural forces, but near-term headwinds are starting to emerge, arguing for patience in adding exposure.The euro’s sharp 10% appreciation against the Chinese yuan this year will handicap…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
SNB’s Fine Line Between Intervention And Manipulation
Expect greater currency interventions and negative policy rates from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), reinforcing a neutral stance on CHF and Swiss sovereign debt over the next 12 months. In recent joint statement on foreign exchange practices, the…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Carney Meets Trump As Canadian Economy Wobbles
Trade concerns continue to weigh on Canada, reinforcing a cautious macro outlook with near term downside for bond yields and the CAD, though the currency selloff is getting stretched and could soon present an attractive entry point.Canada’s goods trade…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Stairway To Asia: The Dollar’s Brief Lift Before The Fall

A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
The Great Rebalancing
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upgrade the Chinese yuan to overweight as global imbalances between production and consumption begin to reverse. The US continues to overconsume and underproduce, while China overproduces and underconsumes. Early signs…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity