Trade / BOP
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global manufacturing activity. As such, Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are a bellwether for global growth. Singapore’s NODX delivered an upside surprise on…
China’s capital outflows will likely remain substantial at least through the next few quarters. This wave of capital outflows will likely be more chronic, albeit less acute than the 2015-16 episode. Persistent capital outflows will exert downward pressure on the RMB.
The recent rate hike by the Philippines central bank cannot control food inflation. Nor can it stem the currency slide.
Chinese trade data for October delivered a mixed message on Tuesday. On the one hand, the export contraction deepened to -6.4% y/y following -6.2% y/y in September and surprised expectations that it would moderate to -3.5% y/y. Yet on the other hand, import…
South Korean exports are the latest in a series of Asian trade data suggesting that the global trade cycle is bottoming. The 5.1% y/y increase in October marks the first return to growth since September 2022. Among South Korea's major trade partners, sales to…
There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global and Asian economic activity. This characteristic makes its exports a good bellwether for global growth. On this front, the upside surprise in Singapore's non-oil domestic…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Mediterranean bloc’s move from current account deficit to current account surplus nations greatly limits the risk of a new sovereign debt crisis. A combination of reforms, fiscal rigor,…
Scandinavian currencies are bearing the brunt of the recent US dollar strength. The Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are the worst performing G10 currencies since the DXY’s mid-July bottom, losing 8.6% and 7.6% of their value vis-à-vis the USD, respectively.…
Taiwanese export orders sent a disappointing signal about global manufacturing conditions on Wednesday, corroborating the message from Singapore’s NODX release earlier this week. The pace of decline in export orders accelerated to -15.7% y/y in August --…